Wrexham vs Birmingham
Probabilities available to members in the Discord.
Wrexham win
Birmingham winComputed · Freezes 24h before kick-off · Model v0.4.0
What members see
- Our probability for each result, to the percent
- Our number beside the market consensus for the same match
- The freeze timestamp and model version, on the record
- The grade after full time, hit or miss
The free tier opens one full match view a week. Supporter £6/mo and Pro £12/mo open more. See how accurate we are
What an entry looks like once it is graded
Chelsea vs Tottenham
2-1
Chelsea winhappened58%consensus 43%
Tottenham win20%consensus 28%One entry from the graded backtest record, 19 May 2026. The record keeps the misses too — see all of it.
Where the numbers come from
Our own model, reading how well both clubs have actually been playing — weighted toward recent form, with home advantage accounted for. It was trained on 30,920 matches through 2026-05-24, and this match’s probability will be frozen into the public record 24 hours before kick-off, then graded after full time.
Goals markets are computed internally but shown only once they pass our public calibration audit. Methodology