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Decision · Match result
CHELSEA 58%
From the graded record · Live entries freeze T-24h+
Decision upheld · Chelsea v Tottenham · 19 May 2026 · FT 2–1
We had Chelsea at 58%; the market consensus said 43%. Chelsea won. The record keeps the ones we got wrong too; that is what makes this one worth showing. Inspect the whole record
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Chelsea vs Tottenham
2-1
From the backtest record · live entries freeze 24h+ before kick-off
Ours 58%. Consensus 43%. Chelsea won.
HT
Chelsea vs Tottenham
2-1
From the backtest record · live entries freeze 24h+ before kick-off
Ours 58%. Consensus 43%. Chelsea won.
90:00 · Full time
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Chelsea vs Tottenham
2-1
Chelsea winhappened58%consensus 43%Tottenham win20%consensus 28%One entry from the graded backtest record, 19 May 2026. The record keeps the misses too — see all of it.
When we say 65%, it happens 65% of the time.
Anyone can publish a percentage. The only question that matters is whether the percentages are true — ours are audited in every probability band, and the audit is public.
Green bar: how often that outcome actually happened. White tick: the average probability we had stated. Premier League backtest, 2,660 matches, 2019–2026.
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Distance behind the market
The betting market is priced with team news we cannot see. This is how close we get without any of it, measured on three held-out seasons.
+2.58%
Average drift from reality
Our stated percentages against what actually happened, on average.
1.5pp
Most likely outcome correct
The market: 54.6% on the same matches.
52.7%
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